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Forecast of Fluctuating Large-Scale Natural Processes and Macroscopic Correlations Effect
p. 31-46
Abstract
The macroscopic correlations effect appears as a correlation in any dissipative processes without the local carriers of interaction. In fluctuating processes there are both retarded and advanced correlations. The possibility of long-term forecasting of the random component of solar and geomagnetic activity on these advanced correlations has been investigated. The forecasting algorithm, employing advanced correlations, is suggested. Its efficiency has been proved on data of the long-term experiments in regime of the real forecast imitation with advancement up to four months. The accuracy of the obtained solar and geomagnetic forecasts is acceptable for all the practical purposes.
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References
Bibliographical reference
Sergey M. Korotaev and V. O. Serdyuk, « Forecast of Fluctuating Large-Scale Natural Processes and Macroscopic Correlations Effect », CASYS, 20 | 2008, 31-46.
Electronic reference
Sergey M. Korotaev and V. O. Serdyuk, « Forecast of Fluctuating Large-Scale Natural Processes and Macroscopic Correlations Effect », CASYS [Online], 20 | 2008, Online since 10 October 2024, connection on 27 December 2024. URL : http://popups.uliege.be/3041-539x/index.php?id=2814
Authors
Sergey M. Korotaev
Geoelectromagnetic Research Center of Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences(GMRC, Post Box 30, Troitsk, Moscow Region, 142190 Russia)
V. O. Serdyuk
Geoelectromagnetic Research Center of Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences(GMRC, Post Box 30, Troitsk, Moscow Region, 142190 Russia)