Anticipatory Simulation for Policy Support : Design and Modelling for Guided Societal Change and Evolution

Societal policy faces both complex and complicated challenges in a highly dynamic environment. Learning from previous experiences e.g. from advanced environmental systems, recent research begins to employ modelling and simulation for anticipatory policy support, for ex. by Early Detection Systems; Systems identifying Option and Action Space (Epstein, Axtell, 1996). The systemic nature and the preconditions of such endeavours need be to be investigated in more depth and detail as to their (meta-) methodical, procedural, object specific and actual background. Though closely connected with advanced computing, the emphasis will lie on the svstemic and the societal aspect of modelling. (Conte et alii ed. , 1997). Relying on results from field research on an authentic case (Republic South Africa. 1997/98, by the author) the paper attempts a systemic approach to basic modelling/simulation in the societal domain