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Anticipation in Disaster Management

Stig C. Holmberg and Ulrica Löfstedt

p. 82-91

    Abstract

    Planning for regional security and crisis management is identified as a multi layered system suitable for anticipatory modelling and simulation. Delays and inter level dependencies, however, have manifested themselves as dominant properties of such systems. This means that an action on one level will cause surprising impacts on the others, but first after some retardation. Fortunately, with help of anticipatory modelling and computer simulation it is possible to demonstrate the effects of those complex inter level interactions in a simulation model before a decision is realised and action is taken.

    Index

    Keywords

    disaster and crisis management, anticipatory modelling and simulation, multi-layered systems, delayed systems, territorial concern

    Text

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    References

    Bibliographical reference

    Stig C. Holmberg and Ulrica Löfstedt, « Anticipation in Disaster Management », CASYS, 25 | 2010, 82-91.

    Electronic reference

    Stig C. Holmberg and Ulrica Löfstedt, « Anticipation in Disaster Management », CASYS [Online], 25 | 2010, Online since 10 October 2024, connection on 27 December 2024. URL : http://popups.uliege.be/3041-539x/index.php?id=3184

    Authors

    Stig C. Holmberg

    Mid Sweden University, 831 25 Ostersund, Sweden

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    Ulrica Löfstedt

    Mid Sweden University, 831 25 Ostersund, Sweden

    By this author

    Copyright

    CC BY-SA 4.0 Deed