Soft Early Warning for Regional Security

In this paper we will discuss security in functional regions that are divided between two or more nations. Awareness and preparation requires some sort of warning mechanism making it possible for the people in the region to become aware and to prepare themselves for upcoming emergency situations. As both the disaster indicators and the crisis to come are both fuzzy and unknown, we will speak about Soft Early Waming Systems (SEWS). In SEWS each individual living in a region will act as a networked human anticipatory emergency sensor and actor. Our conception of such a regional security SEWS is given in the form of an idealised design called the netAgora portal. After discussing the broad lines of the netAgora design this paper will be focusing on the key role anticipatory modelling and simulation may play in a tool for developing a SEWS capacity for handling transnational complex emergencies and disasters.